4/27/26 Blog
What’s Really Going On in the Market Right Now
If it feels like everything is changing faster than ever but markets are still holding up you’re not imagining it.
There’s a lot happening beneath the surface. Let’s simplify it.
The Big Picture
Right now, recession risk sits around 20–30% over the next 12 months. That’s not insignificant but it’s also not the base case.
Consumers are still holding up.
Retail spending remains strong, supported in part by recent tax changes such as no tax on tips and no tax on overtime, larger tax refunds in 2026 as a result of the OBBB last year, and expanded Social Security benefits to people who previously were ineligible. Most of this is being spent on rising costs but this is making the consumers better able to deal with inflation and energy supply changes.
So while oil prices and geopolitical tension create pressure, we’re also seeing the impact of positive economic policy working in the background.
What’s Driving Markets
- This isn’t a bubble.
Markets are being driven by real earnings growth, not just inflated valuations. That’s a much healthier foundation than what we’ve seen in past cycles. We are not paying up in multiple we are paying for earnings. This is a healthy market growth when prices rise on earnings not multiple expansion. - AI is a support, not a threat (yet).
There’s concern about overinvestment, but spending is still below historical peaks. Like past innovations, AI will disrupt but it will also create opportunity. 60% of the jobs that existed in 1940 no longer exist and we have jobs that we hadn’t heard of years ago such as influencer, and prompt engineer. - The labor market is shifting—not breaking.
Unemployment has risen slightly, but largely due to demographic and labor supply changes not economic weakness. Job growth is slowing, but still positive. - Leadership is rotating.
We’re seeing movement away from the largest companies into value, mid-cap, and international stocks—creating new opportunities for diversification and active management.
What About the Risks?
Yes there are real ones:
- Rising oil prices
- Geopolitical tension
- A changing labor market
But historically, markets tend to recover and move higher after geopolitical shocks especially when they’re not paired with recession or aggressive rate hikes.
Opportunities in the market don’t just depend on the market.
They depend on you.
Your ability to take advantage of what’s happening comes down to:
- How clean your budget is
- Whether you have emergency savings
- And if you have capital ready to invest
Where to Start
If you’ve been thinking about getting more intentional with your money but haven’t known where to begin, start simple.
I recently revamped my website to make this easier.
There’s a budget calculator in the resources section designed to help you see your numbers clearly whether you’re adjusting to a change in income, thinking about retirement, or just ready to understand your finances better.
Mosey on down to the resources tab and hit all calculators and find the calculators to help you organize your money. Take small steps towards more clarity and control of your finances.
The economy is still growing.
Earnings are still strong.
Markets are adjusting not breaking.
And as always, there will be opportunities.
The question is whether you’re able to take advantage of them.