When Everything Costs More, Planning Matters More
There is a particular moment at the end of summer when life seems to get expensive all at once.
School starts. Tuition bills arrive. Property taxes are on the horizon. Vacations hit the credit card statement. Gas tanks still need filling. And suddenly, the financial decisions we told ourselves we would deal with "later" are sitting right in front of us.
This year, that feeling isn't entirely in our imagination.
Higher energy prices are working their way through household budgets. Student loan payments are creating difficult tradeoffs for millions of borrowers. Interest rates remain a factor in everything from mortgages to business decisions.
And yet, at the same time, markets and corporate earnings have shown surprising resilience.
Welcome to the economy of 2026:Two things can be true at once.
The Price at the Pump Doesn't Stay at the Pump
The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has become more than a geopolitical headline. Disruptions to global oil supplies pushed the national average price of regular gasoline from less than $3 at the beginning of the year to a peak of $4.56 in late May.
That matters because oil doesn't just affect what it costs to fill your car.
Higher transportation and production costs can eventually show up in food, shipping and other everyday purchases. When families have to devote more money to necessities, there is simply less available for restaurants, travel, savings and other discretionary spending.
And the impact isn't evenly distributed.
In 2024, energy expenditures represented about 17% of income for households in the bottom 20% of earners versus just 2.7% for households in the top 20%.
That's an important reminder about financial statistics: averages don't live in households. People do.
Two families can experience the exact same economy very differently.
That is one reason we don't believe financial planning should begin with a spreadsheet. It should begin with understanding the family sitting across the table.
Then Come the Student Loans
Back-to-school season also brings another financial issue back into focus: student debt.
Borrowers are dealing with missed payments, damaged credit and difficult decisions involving spending, homeownership and retirement savings.
This is where financial decisions start colliding with one another.
Do I increase my 401(k), or pay down the student loan?
Help my adult child with their payments, or put more toward retirement?
Save for my grandchild's education, or help their parents today?
Pay off debt before buying a home?
There isn't a universal answer.
And frankly, I get suspicious anytime financial advice pretends there is one.
Money doesn't happen in isolated categories. Your debt strategy affects your cash flow. Your cash flow affects your investment strategy. Your investment strategy affects your taxes. Your taxes affect what you can eventually transfer to your family.
It is one financial life.
Meanwhile, Markets Haven't Read the Bad Headlines
Despite geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices and inflationary pressure, corporate earnings and financial markets have remained surprisingly resilient.
Artificial intelligence investment has helped support economic activity and earnings growth across several areas of the market, including technology, communications, industrials and utilities.
Energy companies have also benefited from higher oil prices. Second-quarter blended year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 reached 50.4%, with the energy sector's earnings up 147% from a year earlier.
Energy is leading the pack, while earnings growth varied substantially from sector to sector.
This is why "the economy feels bad, so I should get out of the market" can be such a dangerous leap.
Your grocery bill is not the stock market.
Neither is the price of gasoline.
Markets are pricing what investors believe may happen next. Families are paying for what is happening right now.
A good financial plan has to understand both.
And the Tax Rules Have Changed Too
While markets and geopolitics dominate the headlines, some of the most consequential changes for families may be happening in the tax code.
The tax legislation signed into law in July 2025 permanently extended the existing individual income-tax rates and brackets and the larger standard deduction established under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
But there are several provisions I think families building or transferring wealth should pay particular attention to.
Beginning in 2026, the lifetime gift and estate tax exclusion increases to $15 million per person, or $30 million for a married couple, with future inflation adjustments.
The child tax credit was made permanent and increased to $2,200 for 2025, with inflation adjustments going forward.
529 plans also became more flexible. Qualified K-12 expenses expand beyond tuition to include certain books, online educational materials, tutoring and testing fees, while eligible higher-education uses now include certain credentialing programs.
There are also new tax-favored accounts for children under 18, including a pilot program providing a $1,000 federal contribution for eligible U.S. citizen children born from 2025 through 2028.
For families thinking about education, inheritance and generational wealth, these aren't trivia questions for your accountant.
They're planning opportunities.
Business Owners Should Be Paying Attention Too
Several changes matter specifically to entrepreneurs and business owners.
The 20% Qualified Business Income deduction for certain pass-through businesses has been made permanent. Qualified Opportunity Zones have also been extended into a new permanent structure beginning in 2027.
Certain qualified property acquired after January 19, 2025 can qualify for 100% bonus depreciation, and the maximum Section 179 deduction rises from $1.25 million to $2.5 million beginning in tax year 2025.
That doesn't mean everyone should run out and buy equipment simply to generate a deduction.
Please don't spend a dollar just to save thirty cents.
It means business investment, taxes, cash flow and personal wealth planning need to be discussed together — particularly when a business is becoming one of the family's largest assets.
Your Financial Life Is a System
This may be the biggest lesson from the current environment.
Oil prices look like an energy story until they affect inflation.
Inflation looks like an economic story until it affects interest rates.
Interest rates look like a Federal Reserve story until they change your mortgage payment.
Student loans look like a debt problem until they delay retirement contributions or homeownership.
Tax legislation looks like something for accountants until it changes how you educate your children, invest in your business, give to charity or transfer wealth.
Everything eventually connects.
That is what financial planning is supposed to do too.
At Moonshot, we aren't trying to predict when a geopolitical conflict will end, where oil will trade six months from now or exactly what the Federal Reserve will do next.
We're trying to answer the question that matters more:
What does all of this mean for you?
For your family.
For the wealth you're building.
For the wealth you may inherit.
And for the people you eventually want that wealth to help.
Because the goal isn't to build a financial life that only works when the headlines cooperate.
The goal is to build one that can keep moving forward when they don't.
If your financial life has become more complicated — investments, taxes, business decisions, inheritance, education funding or simply figuring out what should come next — that is usually a good time to get everything onto one page and make sure the pieces are actually working together.
Moonshot Financial Group
For families receiving wealth — and families creating it.